As NFL Week 13 unfolds, an intriguing matchup is set for ‘Sunday Night Football’ as the Denver Broncos face off against the Washington Commanders. The Broncos, currently boasting a record of 9-2, are on an impressive eight-game winning streak, most recently toppling the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19. In stark contrast, the Commanders have stumbled through a six-game losing streak, narrowly falling to the Miami Dolphins 16-13 in the inaugural NFL Madrid Game on November 16. The status of quarterback Jayden Daniels (elbow) remains uncertain as he has been ruled out, but Washington will benefit from the return of star receiver Terry McLaurin. Meanwhile, the Broncos welcome back Patrick Surtain II, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, adding strength to their already formidable defense.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. Historical data points to a competitive series, with teams alternating wins in their last eight matchups, although the Commanders claimed victory in their most recent encounter in 2023. Current betting lines set Denver as 6-point favorites on the road, with an over/under total of 43.5 points. This season, the Broncos have a 5-6 record against the spread (ATS), while Washington’s ATS record stands at 3-8. Notably, the Under has hit a combined 14 times for both teams this season.
Why the Broncos Have the Edge
Denver has proven its consistency, covering the spread in three of its last four games and exhibiting a solid 5-3 ATS record during its winning streak. Comparatively, Washington has not only struggled with six consecutive losses but has also failed to cover the spread in those games. The Broncos excel defensively, leading the league in sacks and surrendering the fewest passing touchdowns, while also limiting opponents to an NFL-low in rushing yards per carry. With Surtain II cleared to play, the defense gains an essential boost. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense ranks among the lowest in points allowed and turnovers forced, suffering an average of 34 points over the past five games—far exceeding any of Denver’s performances this season.
Commanders: Finding Hope
Washington can find some encouragement from recent changes, as head coach Dan Quinn took over as the defensive play-caller just before their last game, yielding immediate results with a notable reduction in opponent scoring, limiting them to just 16 points and 142 passing yards—both season lows. This development is particularly crucial when facing a Broncos offense that struggles on the road, averaging only 18 points in their last four away games. Despite the uncertainty surrounding Daniels, the return of McLaurin, who previously tallied 54 yards and a touchdown against Denver, bolsters their offensive prospects significantly.
Making Sense of the Matchup
The SportsLine model, which runs 10,000 simulations for accuracy, indicates an interesting trend predicting an Over on the total points, projecting 45 combined points in this bout. Furthermore, one side of the spread reportedly wins in over 50% of their simulations, providing potential value for bettors.
The upcoming clash between the Broncos and Commanders promises to be a critical point not only for playoff pursuits but also for the futures of both organizations this season. With Denver’s solid momentum and Washington’s search for answers, fans can anticipate a riveting encounter under the Sunday night lights.
