The Las Vegas Raiders have faced a prolonged stretch without a victory, and the stakes are now higher than ever as the conclusion of the 2025 season approaches. If they fall to the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday, they will wrap up their season with an 11th consecutive loss, but oddly enough, this defeat would yield a significant reward for the franchise.
Currently sitting at 2-14, the Raiders last tasted victory on October 12, when they overcame the Tennessee Titans 20-10. Following a disheartening 34-10 loss to the New York Giants last week, they have found themselves as the fifth team in NFL history to record double-digit losing streaks in consecutive seasons. A defeat against Kansas City would also set a new franchise record for losses in a single season.
Nevertheless, there is a silver lining for Las Vegas. If they lose—or even tie—against the Chiefs, they will secure the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. This would mark only the second occasion in franchise history for the Raiders to hold the top pick, the first being after their 2-14 finish in 2006.
However, the New York Giants, currently struggling at 3-13, could snatch that top pick if various conditions align in their favor. Their chances were slimmed after a victory over the Raiders in Week 17 since they now need to secure multiple outcomes this weekend, starting with a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
For the Giants to claim the top draft position, they would also need the Raiders to defeat Kansas City, a team that has lost its last five games and managed just 139 yards of offense in a recent contest against the Denver Broncos. Additionally, the Giants would require the Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Chicago Bears to record at least two wins collectively.
Given the complexities involved in those scenarios, it seems more likely that the Raiders will finish the season with the No. 1 pick. Fans will be hoping for better decision-making than in 2007, when the team infamously selected JaMarcus Russell first overall.
Russell’s college career peaked during a standout performance in the Sugar Bowl, which earned him MVP honors. He opted to forgo his final year and entered the NFL Draft, only to become one of the most notorious draft busts in history, appearing in just 31 games for the Raiders, with a far from impressive 18 touchdown passes against 23 interceptions, leading to his release in 2010.
Although the Raiders recently extended Geno Smith’s contract after acquiring him from Seattle, draft analysts predict that the team will select 2025 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza from Indiana if they take the No. 1 pick. The Giants won’t be seeking a quarterback; having been pleased with Jaxson Dart’s performance as a rookie, the team may instead focus on bolstering another position should they end up with the top pick.
New York has historically been at the forefront of decision-making with the No. 1 pick. In 1951, they opted for running back Kyle Rote, bypassing Y.A. Tittle, who was later acquired and had an MVP-winning season in 1963. Again in 1965, the Giants chose running back Tucker Frederickson over future Hall of Famers like Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers. They have numerous needs for 2026; a standout prospect like Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese could fill a crucial gap if they claim the No. 1 pick.
The Raiders have been plagued by a poor record against the Chiefs lately, having lost five consecutive games to them and 17 of the last 20 meetings overall. Even with Chris Oladukon expected to start again for Kansas City, the ITL projection model doesn’t foresee a rare win for Las Vegas. The model, which simulates every NFL matchup 10,000 times, predicts that Kansas City will emerge victorious, further solidifying the Raiders’ path to the top pick.
| CHANCES FOR NO. 1 OVERALL DRAFT PICK | |
| TEAM | 2026 NO. 1 PICK % |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 79.20% |
| New York Giants | 20.74% |
The ITL team’s model also suggests that the Giants will continue to struggle against the Cowboys, having lost 16 of their last 17 matchups. As the matchups unfold on Sunday, projections indicate that the Raiders are likely to suffer a 19-15 defeat against Kansas City, thus securing the No. 1 draft pick, while the Cowboys are predicted to defeat the Giants by a score of 30-25.
